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Or, good old fashioned monetary inflation. A lot of money printed globally in the last 24 months.


I'm a bit confused by how this would work. I get that extra money lets people bid up the price of assets like homes, but it's not like people are suddenly going to start eating twice as much breakfast cereal. At least in the western world, there is no shortage of basic foodstuffs and no reason to bid them up.


If the breakfast cereal makers have to bid up the inputs, who do you think they pass those costs on to?


That just punts the same question - why are the inputs being bid up? Is there more demand for wheat than before?

Where in the production chain is the item whose scarcity triggers a bidding war?


More money in the hands of investors with the looming threat of increased inflation would lead to investors demanding higher rates of return for their investments at each step in the supply chain. And when the system is flooded with money, you can also expect companies to expand while the cost to borrow is cheap and for new entrants entering and attempting to grab a market share.

More companies or expanding companies vying for more raw material / services leads to higher demand from suppliers (hence the bidding GP mentioned).

There are likely other mechanisms in play too, and probably much simpler ones than this, but this was the first mechanism to cross my mind when seeing your question.


generally, prices are rising, which means workers will demand more money to cover their increased living costs or find an employer who will. (and if house prices are going up, rents are probably doing so as well, particularly as things like REITs have become a whole category of investment products.)

the overall effects can have pretty subtle origins but can ripple through gradually. the worst part about this is, if it happens long enough, inflation can more or less become a sustained expectation and grab a life of its own.


Energy?

The UK's main supplier of fertiliser has actually stopped production because of the rising cost of gas.

https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/cf-industries-...



Supply and demand for the labor required to produce and transport the cereal?


A dollar is worth far less than it was a year ago. Even discarding any other supply chain / production disruptions, things cost more because dollars are inflated.


By 24 months, I think you mean since 2008. They never turned off since then and have only increased in pace [1].

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR


They have been printing money for more than a decade. And of course all the inflation truthers feel vindicated now. But as the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day.


Shh, don't use the "I" word, or you'll summon it.




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