MS aren't about to disappear anytime soon but MS are no longer capable of dominating markets the way they used to. They are in decline at least in relative terms and I don't see any likelihood of that changing any time soon.
The Windows market is going to get nibbled (not gobbled - at least short term) from tablets in the consumer market and the corporate market is going to be increasingly web based for internal systems which over time will loosen the Windows grip there.
Exchange, Sharepoint, SQL Server can all remain major revenue drivers in the corporate world, they won't go anywhere quickly and they may even grow (I don't know the market well enough). IBM makes enough money in these markets.
Office is the big elephant, Excel is the tool for massive amounts of forecasting and modelling. Many people don't need the power and have alternatives but many do. PowerPoint strikes me as replaceable, most content created with it has a short lifespan. Word is replaceable for individual users but the network effect of people using it and exchanging files gives it hold.
Overall I think MS has a good decade or two of good profits if it wants to take them but the glory days are done.
Looking back, I think many of the big initial successes for Microsoft were propelled by missteps from their competitors. Apple, Lotus, Word Perfect, Novell, the list is long.
This time, their two biggest competitors haven't made many mistakes at all, and that is their big problem.
Was WordPerfect a miss step or dirty tricks? Maybe both, but you are right.
Generally though I don't think that MS has the agility to capitalise on the mistakes that do happen. This still have massive scale and cash but everything I read about life in Microsoft says slow decline is the future. Over managed battling fiefdoms and bureaucracy that limit innovation and are likely to strangle any start up they buy.
You could argue that Microsoft's biggest competitors are being propelled by missteps made my Microsoft. For example, MS could have easily owned the smartphone market; they breezed past Palm and Symbian but they massively dropped the ball.
>>*Apple, Lotus, Word Perfect, Novell, the list is long.
Heck, Microsoft came to prominence only due to a huge misstep on the part of the IBM. Bill Gates simply exploited the opportunity like anyone with half a brain would in that situation.
The Windows market is going to get nibbled (not gobbled - at least short term) from tablets in the consumer market and the corporate market is going to be increasingly web based for internal systems which over time will loosen the Windows grip there.
Exchange, Sharepoint, SQL Server can all remain major revenue drivers in the corporate world, they won't go anywhere quickly and they may even grow (I don't know the market well enough). IBM makes enough money in these markets.
Office is the big elephant, Excel is the tool for massive amounts of forecasting and modelling. Many people don't need the power and have alternatives but many do. PowerPoint strikes me as replaceable, most content created with it has a short lifespan. Word is replaceable for individual users but the network effect of people using it and exchanging files gives it hold.
Overall I think MS has a good decade or two of good profits if it wants to take them but the glory days are done.