The productivity-to-workload compression point is real, but I think the more interesting dynamic is what happens to team shape over time. Running a small sales team with agents, the bottleneck shifted from execution to judgment almost overnight. The work didn't disappear, but who's doing which part of it changed pretty fast.
The junior hiring slowdown makes sense in that context. Junior roles were often the execution layer. That layer is getting absorbed. Whether that's bad long-term depends on whether there's still a path to build judgment without first doing the execution work for years. But what can be seen on entry level teams is you typically have 20% of these people that are outstanding, and 80% average. I assume this 20% will simply be able to cover more ground.
The junior hiring slowdown makes sense in that context. Junior roles were often the execution layer. That layer is getting absorbed. Whether that's bad long-term depends on whether there's still a path to build judgment without first doing the execution work for years. But what can be seen on entry level teams is you typically have 20% of these people that are outstanding, and 80% average. I assume this 20% will simply be able to cover more ground.