> I tend to mean "heavily AI-assisted coding" whereas you likely mean "never look at the code YOLO coding."
The original point that sparked this sub-thread though is that AI is being overhyped. If actual vibe coding (YOLO it, never look at or understand the code, thus truly enabling non-technical folk to have revolutionary power and ability) doesn't work, then AI is yet just another tool in the toolbelt like any other developer life enhancing tech we've had so far, it's just a new form of IDE.
Being a new form of IDE, while very useful, isn't exactly entire economy transforming revolutionary tech. If it can't be used by someone with zero computer/eng experience to build something useful and revenue generating, the amount of investment we've seen into it is way overblown and is well overdue for a pretty severe correction.
I buy AI as a "developer enhancing tool" just like any other devtools that we've seen over my career. I don't currently buy it as a "total labor economy transformation force."
But that's the thing... I don't YOLO it, I review all the code it generates, yet I personally am doing something -- using computer vision, a field I had negligible prior background in -- that would have taken a team of 2 - 3, AND about a semester or year of an advanced degree to catch up on the field! I am effectively doing the work of a team.
So when I see people online say they feel 10x productive, I tend to believe them. But I'm working solo, and have none of the encumbrances and "Conway Overhead" of coordinating with a lot of other people, so I also understand why the overall effect is so limited. Which is why I think current companies are "shaped wrong" for AI.
When companies eventually adapt, it will be a "labor economy transformation force" because the same dynamics will play out across all knowledge work. And I am not talking as an AI booster, but as a parent whose kids are interested in software engineering; I have every incentive to hope my prognostications do not come true, but I prefer being prepared for the worst.
The original point that sparked this sub-thread though is that AI is being overhyped. If actual vibe coding (YOLO it, never look at or understand the code, thus truly enabling non-technical folk to have revolutionary power and ability) doesn't work, then AI is yet just another tool in the toolbelt like any other developer life enhancing tech we've had so far, it's just a new form of IDE.
Being a new form of IDE, while very useful, isn't exactly entire economy transforming revolutionary tech. If it can't be used by someone with zero computer/eng experience to build something useful and revenue generating, the amount of investment we've seen into it is way overblown and is well overdue for a pretty severe correction.
I buy AI as a "developer enhancing tool" just like any other devtools that we've seen over my career. I don't currently buy it as a "total labor economy transformation force."