Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

Forget 'after' the war; unless Iran surrenders or undergoes a dramatic regime change (neither of which have more than 5% probability in my view) there is no way for the US to get a win condition without somehow taking custody of Iran's nuclear materiƩl. The tissue-thin casus belli here is that after we 'obliterated' their nuclear enrichment capacity 8 months ago, they are somehow back to being within weeks of having enough fissile material for a bomb.

Since every Israeli-financed politician in the US (which is most of them) feels the need to reiterate that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon every 5 minutes to prevent their smartphone exploding we can't just bomb them for a while and then declare victory; we're now in the official position (per Rubio) of having to attack them preƫmptively any time Israel feels like bombing them, and Israel seems to feel like bombing Iran as often as possible. There's no way out of this cycle without removing Iran's ability to maintain and enrich nuclear fuel and/or configure it into a bomb and there's no way of definitively doing that without taking possession of it. No matter how many bombs we drop on their (known) nuclear facilities, the results of such a campaign can be instantly obviated by an intelligence report claiming the existence of more. And there's simply no way of taking possession of the nuclear materials without a ground war, which is a near-certain disaster.

I also doubt Trump and his coterie have seriously considered the possibility that if the Islamic Republic's back is absolutely against the wall, they're highly incentivized to launch a 'dirty' bomb using fissile material with conventional explosives. It doesn't have to do significant kinetic damage: if they drop a few missiles on Tel Aviv and/or Jerusalem and make it clear that they have a radioactive payload, the Israelis will cast away the small amount of strategic objectivity they have left. No matter what the government of Israel may say at that point, I cannot see the highly-propagandized Israeli population just deciding not to worry about being radioactively dusted.



Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: