I don't think this can practically be done. The article says that for a given part, the time to fail will vary widely.
>> The chart below shows the logarithmic failure curve of steel bars placed in a fatigue machine. Most fail after 1 million cycles, but if you were to test only a few bars, those failures might occur after 10 million cycles.
If this is the case, the only way to ensure a cluster of failures at say, 10 years, would be to 1) engineer the part so that most will last much more than 10 years (to guarantee that nearly all will last at least that long), and 2) add a mechanism for breaking it. Like, a random number generator and a tiny saw that cuts the axle if it returns 0.5. That seems both unfeasible (you have to engineer the tiny saw, incorporate it into the cost and weight budgets, ensure that IT won't fail, etc) and easily discoverable. The resulting scandal would destroy the company.
Besides all this, a reputation of "barely lasts through the warranty" is bad for business. I (like many people) buy Toyotas because experience shows they last a long time. Ford has impressed me lately, but I have to be convinced they're just as good before I'd buy one. "Lasts 10 years" is not good enough to compete.
You don't have to suspect a conspiracy if you can show that the evil action discussed is against the interests of the supposed perpetrators. This is basically why capitalism works.
>> The chart below shows the logarithmic failure curve of steel bars placed in a fatigue machine. Most fail after 1 million cycles, but if you were to test only a few bars, those failures might occur after 10 million cycles.
If this is the case, the only way to ensure a cluster of failures at say, 10 years, would be to 1) engineer the part so that most will last much more than 10 years (to guarantee that nearly all will last at least that long), and 2) add a mechanism for breaking it. Like, a random number generator and a tiny saw that cuts the axle if it returns 0.5. That seems both unfeasible (you have to engineer the tiny saw, incorporate it into the cost and weight budgets, ensure that IT won't fail, etc) and easily discoverable. The resulting scandal would destroy the company.
Besides all this, a reputation of "barely lasts through the warranty" is bad for business. I (like many people) buy Toyotas because experience shows they last a long time. Ford has impressed me lately, but I have to be convinced they're just as good before I'd buy one. "Lasts 10 years" is not good enough to compete.
You don't have to suspect a conspiracy if you can show that the evil action discussed is against the interests of the supposed perpetrators. This is basically why capitalism works.