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"The expected value isn't flawed, but it's often not an useful guide to what action you should take."

Yeah, I agree with that - if good decisions could be made that easily we'd all be phenomenally successful. There are mountains of complications (both qualitative and quantitative) that must be heaped on top of expected values if they're going to be any use at all in deciding what action to take. Perhaps this was the author's point, but perhaps that's sort of obvious anyway.



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