> The difference in this case is that you're not just bringing down the guild, you're bringing down the blacksmith and the carpenter as well.
I'm fairly sure that when these kinds of transitions happen the associated guild blacksmiths and carpenters, or artists thriving under royal patronage, or live musicians who did not adapt well to recording in the studio, are the ones who get the brunt of the pain. Although, as a group they always survive, while the hangers on and various big guys sometimes don't.
That's nitpicky though, I didn't mean to imply that there isn't/won't be significant damage to artists livelihoods, just that the damage to society and everyone else is greater if we continue down the road to the panopticon society necessary to continue to enforce our current copyright system.
> if they provide a better incentive than copyright, and almost no-one does
It's hard to beat a large scale monopoly distribution scheme. It's entirely possible that artists won't be able to make as much money under any new system as they did in the current one. Maybe there will be lowers highs and higher lows as the business moves away from being so hit-oriented. The one thing that's almost certain is that the distribution of music revenue among artists will be different, I find it more likely that the new technologies influence will be to flatten that distribution. Like you said, Kickstarter is a good example of an experiment that would do this if it does succeed.
I also agree that no one has figured out how to make blockbuster movies without a distribution monopoly to fund it, and they might never figure it out. Our generation's era of movies would probably be considered a bit of a golden age for high cost spectacle, like the old studio system was for serials and creating hollywood royalty.
> The trouble is, if we don't pull it off, those new business models are going to be things like always-online DRM schemes and locked-down hardware and walled garden app stores. Exactly none of these things ultimately results in better experiences for the public. They just happen to have defensible bottom lines for the businesses.
This is a good point, taking the path to locked-down hardware and DRM is an escape route that the existing industry can take/is taking. On reflection I agree, anti-SOPA/anti-surveillance sentiment pushes the industry to ramp up what Doctorow called the coming war on general purpose computation. Depressing thought, but at least some of the ideals that would motivate people to stop one will also motivate them to stop the other. And open hardware will still exist, and have benefits that consumers will like so that's winnable as well.
I'm fairly sure that when these kinds of transitions happen the associated guild blacksmiths and carpenters, or artists thriving under royal patronage, or live musicians who did not adapt well to recording in the studio, are the ones who get the brunt of the pain. Although, as a group they always survive, while the hangers on and various big guys sometimes don't.
That's nitpicky though, I didn't mean to imply that there isn't/won't be significant damage to artists livelihoods, just that the damage to society and everyone else is greater if we continue down the road to the panopticon society necessary to continue to enforce our current copyright system.
> if they provide a better incentive than copyright, and almost no-one does
It's hard to beat a large scale monopoly distribution scheme. It's entirely possible that artists won't be able to make as much money under any new system as they did in the current one. Maybe there will be lowers highs and higher lows as the business moves away from being so hit-oriented. The one thing that's almost certain is that the distribution of music revenue among artists will be different, I find it more likely that the new technologies influence will be to flatten that distribution. Like you said, Kickstarter is a good example of an experiment that would do this if it does succeed.
I also agree that no one has figured out how to make blockbuster movies without a distribution monopoly to fund it, and they might never figure it out. Our generation's era of movies would probably be considered a bit of a golden age for high cost spectacle, like the old studio system was for serials and creating hollywood royalty.
> The trouble is, if we don't pull it off, those new business models are going to be things like always-online DRM schemes and locked-down hardware and walled garden app stores. Exactly none of these things ultimately results in better experiences for the public. They just happen to have defensible bottom lines for the businesses.
This is a good point, taking the path to locked-down hardware and DRM is an escape route that the existing industry can take/is taking. On reflection I agree, anti-SOPA/anti-surveillance sentiment pushes the industry to ramp up what Doctorow called the coming war on general purpose computation. Depressing thought, but at least some of the ideals that would motivate people to stop one will also motivate them to stop the other. And open hardware will still exist, and have benefits that consumers will like so that's winnable as well.