I think it was good of you to cite No True Scotsman.
I still think any estimate, even hilariously broad ones, are useful. Watts Humphreys put it this way: when is an estimate going to be most accurate? When you've just finished. When is it most useful? When you're just starting. In between is a tradeoff between usefulness and accuracy. You accept that estimates are inaccurate -- that's why they're called 'estimates'. But even if you narrow estimation variance from +/- 400% to +/- 200% over time, that is still a valuable improvement.
When I'm working with clients I explain the cone of uncertainty and so far they've all been understanding of the fact that software work contains profound uncertainties that other lines of work won't.
I still think any estimate, even hilariously broad ones, are useful. Watts Humphreys put it this way: when is an estimate going to be most accurate? When you've just finished. When is it most useful? When you're just starting. In between is a tradeoff between usefulness and accuracy. You accept that estimates are inaccurate -- that's why they're called 'estimates'. But even if you narrow estimation variance from +/- 400% to +/- 200% over time, that is still a valuable improvement.
When I'm working with clients I explain the cone of uncertainty and so far they've all been understanding of the fact that software work contains profound uncertainties that other lines of work won't.