You know what I like about thick apps? They scale like a boss. Add a user, add (at least) one CPU and a whole lotta RAM to the cluster, for free. I spend a lot of time looking at New Relic graphs thinking "why didn't we build this as a thick app"?

Then I remember the recurring web revenue model.

(My bet is on a convergence of web apps and thick apps, but I think it will be thick apps adding cloud-like functionality rather than HTML5+javascript.)