splitting a project into an open ended "exploratory phase" of undefined length followed by a "main phase" of defined length doesn't seem like it would make any change to the total time taken, just shifting around the unpredictability
AFAICT it's actually worse - the exploratory phase always seems to get bogged down by theoretical discussions and imaginary scenarios that don't end up being very important (and putting off how long it takes to find the scenarios that actually do).
Right, and that’s Tesler’s law restated. You’re really just shifting complexity and not reducing it.
Where it makes sense is from a sociocultural perspective. Under Taylorist management philosophy, management is to do the thinking, and workers are to do the doing. Structuring a project where managers take on the exploratory phase fits well within the set of assumptions taught in project management programs.
