Even if you total up all the models from other manufacturers, it still doesn't touch the model Y or model 3 for sheer volume. Add all 4 Tesla models up and it's a bloodbath. (This is in the markets people on HN probably care about, North America and Europe. China is another matter.)
Norway is the most mature EV market in the world, and looking at 2022 numbers Tesla sold the most cars, but VW is not far behind. 21300 for Tesla (most model Y) vs 20183 for VW (most Id.4), of which the vast majority (like 90% or more) were EVs.
So Tesla is strong, but they are not crushing the market.
Figures that I have for Q1 2023 for BMW Group (which includes Mini) are: 588,138 total, including 64,647 BEV. So that's 11% BEV. IN Q1 2022, figures were: 596,907 total, including about 25,940 BEV. So it was 4.3% BEV.
Going from 4.3% BEV to 11% BEV may not sound so impressive, but little by little non Tesla BEVs are adding up, and I think many car makers are investing very seriously into it.
Historically the car market has not been one of monopoly, I don't think it's going to change with Tesla. Market shares will change, some car makers will fail to adapt, but I don't think German carmakers are the ones that will suffer the most. Japanese carmakers I have more doubt: they are moving very slowly, but on the other hand Japan knows how to manufacture batteries at scale (Panasonic), so once Toyota decides to move seriously into BEV, they might be able to move very fast.
I'm a lot more worried about my own country carmakers (Renault and Peugeot). Not only they move slowly and erratically, they are going to compete head on, on price, with Chinese carmakers...
“Tesla not only beat all US luxury automakers on car sales for 2022 as a whole, but also beat them by a ridiculous margin. BMW was the former champ, and while its sales dropped by over 5% year over year, Tesla's sales grew by more than a whopping 40%.”
There’s strong disagreement around that the model S and X might qualify as luxury cars but are missing many common characteristics like the degree of sound isolation. Some people talk about pricing, but you can spend 6 figures on a ford 150 which isn’t a Luxury brand.
Everyone carries one with them all the time now because the technology became miniaturized while quality shot way up? Man, I'd love for George Jetson's briefcase car to be a reality!
Because they live in an alternate dimension with a peculiar market that's kinda bubbled off. China is also like a decade ahead in electrification.
All scooters in large cities have been electric for over a decade (its a weird time warp coming to taiwan and experiencing the stench of scooter on your morning commute)
They had a fully electric taxi service about 7 years ago. Inside the city medium size trucks (for delivering merchandise to stores) are all electric. They have tons of local brands that produce electric consumer cars
However the domestic market is ginormous and they only make weak attempts at going global. The international market is fragmentary and you can be arbitrarily extrajudicially curb stomped with tariffs or outright bands due to anti China hysteria
> All scooters in large cities have been electric for over a decade
A lot longer than a decade. But it depends on the city. Beijing electrified earlier (like 2004 or so), Shanghai followed, then you have smaller cities where gas was allowed for much longer.
> They had a fully electric taxi service about 7 years ago.
What city? Surely not Beijing. Maybe Shenzhen?
> Inside the city medium size trucks (for delivering merchandise to stores) are all electric.
I'm beginning to doubt you here. The delivery trikes are electric. But the small trucks that deliver merchandise to stores? Definitely not the blue trucks that are only allowed inside the 5th ring at night and cause air quality to tank after midnight.
> The international market is fragmentary and you can be arbitrarily extrajudicially curb stomped with tariffs or outright bands due to anti China hysteria
China's market is limited by their own protectionism. It is hard to tell someone to "open up" when you aren't willing to do the same yourself.
As you've caught on, I'm a bit fuzzy on the dates.. But I feel I was riding Caocao taxis in Chengdu around then?
"Definitely not the blue trucks that are only allowed inside the 5th ring at night and cause air quality to tank after midnight"
Yeah you're right! I was off the mark there. There are smog monsters at night thats for sure. Forgot about those haha. During the day the smaller refrigerated trucks were electric though
As to your last point.. It's not a simple topic, but protectionism in theory only hurts your own market and your own consumers. Reciprocity is kinda irrelevant
Is Hackernews just getting overrun by pro-Xi commentators that make up whatever they want now? Chinese air pollution is ridiculous, and it's primarily because of their massive amount of vehicle emissions:
HN's community is large and therefore divided on divisive topics. That's more than enough to explain why there's diversity of opinion on, for example, geopolitical topics. Everyone needs to abide by the rules in the presence of such topics so that this place does not end up burning itself to a crisp. Therefore, please don't post to HN like you did here—instead, please make your substantive points respectfully and thoughtfully.
That link points out that air pollution isn’t “primarily” due to vehicle emissions except in some cities.
On both regional and national scales, vehicle emission has been identified as one of the most important contributors to air pollution in most cities in China (Gong et al., 2017; Wang et al., 2010; Wu et al., 2016), and has even surpassed other contamination sources in some cities.
* EVs are not a solution to air pollution, most air pollution from modern cars is from brakes and tyres.
* OTOH, China is really ahead in battery-powered 2-wheelers, that replace the old scooter fleet, and that ought to do something.
* Still, China's air pollution is for the main part due to massive use of coal power, incinerators, and desertification bringing sand from Gobi desert. The linked study from grand-parent doesn't even mention any of these.
The Chinese car market is full of brands that don't even try to sell their cars outside China. But it's noteworthy that Tesla is a top seller there as well, second only to local juggernaut BYD in EVs.
