>Historically, while immigration does have some downsides especially if your system has a lot of entitlements, the pros outweigh the cons.
You have to be far, far more specific. Both real estate and the job markets are already suffocating the average young adult in most developed countries. Your solution proposes to put more pressure on both of those markets, for the sake of another population. Young adults aren't going to see the benefits of this for a long time. Younger generations likely won't for a good while, either.
Additionally, by pumping in more people from outside, you're specifically pressuring skilled workers who put more thought to popping out babies than just doing the deed. There will be some semblance of resentment potential parents feel they can't reasonably have kids in a country already squeezing them things out at the current population size, despite wanting to. You know, the exact same thing happening in most countries today.
Even if Japan doesn't have similar problems with RE, the population isn't exactly waiting for immigrants willing to accept poor work conditions and pressure other candidates to do the same.
>Imo it’s a big reason why the US eventually surpassed Europe
You just going to conveniently skip multiple events leaving Europe in shambles and setting the US up to be in prime position to take over the global economy?
> Both real estate and the job markets are already suffocating the average young adult in most developed countries.
> Additionally, by pumping in more people from outside, you're specifically pressuring skilled workers who put more thought to popping out babies than just doing the deed.
You’re blaming this solely or mainly on immigration? You’re also going to have to be more specific.
> You just going to conveniently skip multiple events leaving Europe in shambles and setting the US up to be in prime position to take over the global economy?
Even without the wars, the US already had a trajectory of supreme power. We had the natural resources & geographical advantages, as well as the size and quality of our population which was positively impacted by immigration.This is why the UK pondered going to war with us again.
The Soviet Union also had geography and natural resources. Didn't seem to help much. Japan had no natural resources. When they turned to free markets after WW2, the Japanese economy had a spectacular rise.
I disagree. Most of the Soviet Union’s land is uninhabitable let alone usable, but let’s ignore that. The Soviet Union also didn’t have the economic system, infrastructure, investment, and immigration to take advantage of it.
I’m also not sure how this weakens my argument that the US was destined to superpower status even without the world wars.
Operating under the US military umbrella, as a major US & EU trading partner, had its advantages.
Japan's resource scarcity combined with long-term political stability (like Britain, it's been spared invasion for well over 1,000 years) promoted highly-efficient industry. Post-war industrial policy emphasized efficient transportation (motorcycles and small cars), and electronics, which worked pretty well up through the 1990s.
Russia had been industrially-backward until well past the Communist overthrow (and had lost a war to Japan immediately prior to WWI). It has mineral resources but a small population, difficult trsnportation challenges, and a precarious food situation. The country itself is huge and multi-ethnic, with a legacy that tends to breed frictions.
I don't agree completely, some parts are just fantasy projections. Looking at an example of Switzerland, who for quite some time desperately relies on constant immigration to not end up in exactly same demographic and economic place as Japan.
Swiss simply don't want to have kids, and if yes its 1 max 2... Mentality is really not much pro-kids, system gives only bare minimum support and taxes you massively for things that are free everywhere around. Kindergartens costing you 12% of the income - if you are incredibly lucky/connected to actually get in. 12 weeks of paid maternity leave when friends back home have 3 years/kid, and after that a lot of pressure to come back to work. Being taxed more when actually being married compared to single couple, laws from more misogynistic era when only men worked and women stayed home.
I've read that Switzerland is consistently rated as the worst developed place to have kids when judged by conditions created by state/society.
So its more often than not immigrants, some naturalized over time, that have kids. Property prices are ridiculous long term, many Swiss never lived in their own property (even apartment) and never will, even in retirement (or they will buy something in Spain or Thailand and migrate to have a decent lifestyle).
Despite all this (and much more), society is fine. Somehow they still manage to keep up 'Swiss spirit' of running things smoothly (mostly at least, based on my recent experience with residence permits which was and still is rather Kafkaesque). The points you raise are just part of whole package and nobody whines about it. You must realize that owning your own property is not some basic civil right, and for some its more burden than blessing. Getting rid of that notion is actually quite liberating from my own experience, more time on more important things in life.
Also property market is set to conditions in which currently it doesn't make any sense to buy properties. Due to how ownership is taxed, you never own more than 35% of the property, perpetually paying interests. But interests only right now are higher than rental prices. and something tells me its not going down anytime soon.
I have several friends with small kids in Switzerland. Seen from inside, they say the system is not bad at all. They also lived in a country with 2 years of maternity leave and they preferred Switzerland overall.
While my small sample statistics contradicts you, for me it is good enough because I trust these sources (I know some of these people for over a decade).
Switzerland and Japan doesn't have land to sell, so it's not a good example for the ideal of home ownership.
Things run 'fine' because the immigrants and majority of swiss people have no foothold in the country. There is very little opportunity to sway the dial in their own favour, so the people who make the compromises and let go of everything are happy with it.
The problem of young people having economic problems seem to be rather orthogonal to immigration. Immigration, if done right, should create more wealth than the immigrants themselves consume. So there should be more wealth going around for the aboriginal population. That this wealth doesn’t reach the younger population seems like an orthogonal policy problem. A salient example that comes to my mind is policies restricting housing supply.
Europe turned to socialism much earlier than the US. While this started around 1900, Germany's situation can be instructive.
When WW2 ended, as we all know, Germany was flattened. Although Germany did start receiving Marshall Plan money, it was considerably less than Britain and France received. Germany's solution was to become a free market economy. The result was the "German Miracle". West Germany roared from flatline to the dominant economy in Europe.
Britain and France never really recovered economically. East Germany, under the communists, did very poorly.
West Germany's success continued until 1970, when Germany put socialists in power and the economy slowed down.
It's just another example of free markets working very, very well.
which markets are free? markets work well for things that are measured, not everything that matters is measured. Also worth noting, countries have the right to determine their own ways, irrespective of some dictionary defined word like 'markets'
You have to be far, far more specific. Both real estate and the job markets are already suffocating the average young adult in most developed countries. Your solution proposes to put more pressure on both of those markets, for the sake of another population. Young adults aren't going to see the benefits of this for a long time. Younger generations likely won't for a good while, either.
Additionally, by pumping in more people from outside, you're specifically pressuring skilled workers who put more thought to popping out babies than just doing the deed. There will be some semblance of resentment potential parents feel they can't reasonably have kids in a country already squeezing them things out at the current population size, despite wanting to. You know, the exact same thing happening in most countries today.
Even if Japan doesn't have similar problems with RE, the population isn't exactly waiting for immigrants willing to accept poor work conditions and pressure other candidates to do the same.
>Imo it’s a big reason why the US eventually surpassed Europe
You just going to conveniently skip multiple events leaving Europe in shambles and setting the US up to be in prime position to take over the global economy?