And for many professions, the rate of base pay will fall so that total comp doesn't move much.

Where it gets most interesting is professions say 50% above minimum wage where it's customary for people to work long hours. This really increases pressure on employers to train up lower skilled workers to these roles and incentives for others to make the cut.

It also has a big effect on what happens during economic upswings. If you have to stretch an existing worker pool further suddenly, it gets more expensive, and workers get a bigger piece of the pie.

Maybe for new hires getting a lower rate, but if they try to cut back pay for doctors/nurses after the pandemic, you'll probably just end up with a strike. We already did jack shit for healthcare workers and a base pay decrease would infuriate people.

I don't know where pressures for healthcare pay are going. I'm just saying that, if you are an employer facing a work week change, you can make this argument to higher paid workers:

- Under the previous contract, most of you worked 50 hours and got 40 * $100/hour plus 10 * $150/hour = $5500/week.

- Under the new contract, we expect most of you will still work 50 hours, and will get 36 * $100/hour + 14 * $150/hour = $5700/week. This is on the par with the 3.6% wage increase you expected.

Vs. having to move base pay to $103-104/hour.

It sure increases the pressure to find new employees, though, because you can save a whole lot of overtime pay.

> Healthcare will still be working the same hours for the reasons you stated.

Ok, so pay/costs go up 10%, then (time and a half for 8 hours is 4 extra hours worth of pay)? Or does the total pay stay the same? (In which case, what's the point.)

I assume this would also be true of factory or construction workers. You can't suddenly make 20% more widgets an hour. So either we hire 20% more workers or pay 10% more for existing workers to work the same schedule.