If you're sure about that, I hope you're investing accordingly...

Not exactly. If you are not sure the glut will last for a while and then disappear you don't invest. There is a ton of money to make but only if you get the details right, if any is wrong there is a ton of money to lose.

If you're sure the glut will disappear within two months there are lots of safe investments.

What if you don't know if it is 2 months or 2 years? There are great investments either way, but some investments only work with one and lose badly in the other. Thus if you are not sure you can't invest.

You describe a different situation than thread parent described.

Not exactly. I'm sure the glut will go away, but my error bars are large enough that I'm not comfortable betting on it.