> Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK
Why not? Personally, if I were put before the choice of not having more people enter my country than I can screen or killing off 1M+ of my electorate, I'd at least seriously consider the first option. Meanwhile the UK government clearly thought that even stopping the flow of people from an epi-center, fleeing quarantine (or at least tracking them) would be a grave over-reaction.
> You might track down some of these smouldering brush fires, but not all
I don't see why you can't keep it reasonably contained even with occasional flare ups. I'm not saying you are wrong, but it is certainly not self evident. Since the Chinese were willing to kiss good bye to something in the vicinity of $1T, presumably they think they can. If you keep perfecting testing and procedures and hold out till you've got a vaccine, I don't see that would not be a winning strategy.
> That’s how flu keeps coming back every winter.
Well, this is way worse than the flu and may get worse still, so we should be very motivated to kill it whilst we can. Also, looks like there'll be more where this one came from. Just taking a big hit to global life expectancy every few years will probably start to add up over the long run.
>> Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK
>Why not?
In addition to major airports we also have many minor ones and private airfields. There are 120 commercial ports, and many, many more smaller docks, quays and marinas. We have many islands and remote coastal communities that rely on these for essential supplies and no systematic way to monitor them all. Even then, sealing ourselves completely would have to include stopping goods because goods are carried by people.
Also we now know the virus can survive on cardboard for up to 9 days. We don't have 9 days worth of supplies of everything in the country and don'y have a tracking system for every shipment in or out. We know from the Brexit analysis that we can't track goods enough to tax them, so clearly we can't do the same for medical reasons.
Finally, even if such a lockdown were practically feasible and we developed the logistical and administrative capacity to do it overnight, which we can't, it would destroy our economy. That would inflict massive hardship, particularly on the old and vulnerable, exactly the people we most need to protect. Hardship and poverty kills people, and shutting down all trade and commerce until we have a vaccine, which could be several years or even indefinitely, would take us back to the stone age. It would be far, far worse even than during World War 2, and that's how severe it would have to be to prevent the virus getting in, not just for months but probably for one or more years.
Anyway thats a fantasy, we just don't have the logistical or administrative apparatus to do it fast enough for it to matter.
Why not? Personally, if I were put before the choice of not having more people enter my country than I can screen or killing off 1M+ of my electorate, I'd at least seriously consider the first option. Meanwhile the UK government clearly thought that even stopping the flow of people from an epi-center, fleeing quarantine (or at least tracking them) would be a grave over-reaction.
> You might track down some of these smouldering brush fires, but not all
I don't see why you can't keep it reasonably contained even with occasional flare ups. I'm not saying you are wrong, but it is certainly not self evident. Since the Chinese were willing to kiss good bye to something in the vicinity of $1T, presumably they think they can. If you keep perfecting testing and procedures and hold out till you've got a vaccine, I don't see that would not be a winning strategy.
> That’s how flu keeps coming back every winter.
Well, this is way worse than the flu and may get worse still, so we should be very motivated to kill it whilst we can. Also, looks like there'll be more where this one came from. Just taking a big hit to global life expectancy every few years will probably start to add up over the long run.