I think that's quite a bit premature. Yes, Microsoft has done a great job diversifying of late, but Windows is still a huge percentage of their revenue. Also, my guess is that people that use Windows are much more likely to use Office (even the cloud version), which is the next biggest part of their revenue.

Google hasn’t made any real profit on anything besides advertising during its whole existence. It’s much less diversified than Microsoft, Apple, or Amazon.

I disagree with that. First, Google's other businesses are growing very fast, much faster than its overall ad business: https://qz.com/1334369/alphabet-q2-2018-earnings-google-is-m... .

Second, and I think perhaps more fundamentally, Google is incredibly well diversified among ad channels, so I think lumping that all together and then drawing the conclusion "Google is at risk because they get all their money from ads" misses the mark. Google has AdWords, AdSense, DoubleClick, YouTube, Android, GMail, Google Assistant/Nest, etc. They may be dependent on ads but they control a staggering breadth of ad channels.

86% of their revenue is still ad based, YouTube is widely thought just to be break even and I specifically said profit not revenue. How much of thier profit is ad based and how many of thier other ventures are losing money?

One major differentiator for Azure is its 1st class support for Windows / Microsoft centric tech. Besides that, I find it hard to see why someone would pick them over AWS. So if consumer Windows becomes irrelevant, so does Windows server. If you’re no longer needing Windows server, why get SQL server and so on. I think consumer Windows demand fuels demand for Azure and Office 365.

For one thing, the Azure portal is more consistent and so much better to work with than the clunky, rather antiquated AWS portal.

Azure has a huge and every-growing service offering, which includes things like Postgres, so it's not like you are bound to Microsoft tech if you use Azure.

I've been working with Azure for a few years now, and am very happy with it - in the main, I've found there support to be excellent too.

IMO the only area AWS really kicks Azure's arse is for compute - you get a lot more VM for your money with AWS. I really wish Azure would do better here.

Amazon has as first class support as Windows as is feasible considering the bloat of Windows. Thier SDKs for .Net and extensions for Visual Studio are top notch.

They aren’t crazy enough to support lambda or Fargate for Windows.

What do you think would be the share percentage of Bing if they didn't have windows?

So yes, they do care about owning a successful platform.

Doesn't Office 365 still run on the desktop? It's a bit of a stretch booking that as cloud revenue.

MS books anything they can as ‘cloud’ revenue, including all their server software and o365. So when you hear about Azure being the second largest cloud - take it with a grain of salt.

Their IAAS revenue is a lot smaller.

There's also the web apps. They're pretty much on par.

While Windows revenue must be nice, I agree with you that Microsoft ‘s future is more tied with Office 365 and Azure.

The Office 365 iOS apps are nice enough and the web version runs anywhere. Mostly because of the cloud storage space, but also the applications, I will probably be a lifetime customer for $100/year. I wonder how $100/year compares to Facebook’s and Google’s revenue per user. I pay Google $500/year for music, books, movies, tv dhows, and GCP but I am not a typical user.