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Considering the two sticks of Micron RAM I purchased in mid 2016 have appreciated 2-3x value, I don't have much sympathy for the big three DRAM producers. There's a reason the Chinese are looking so longingly at their lunch.


Micron and other DRAM producers were losing money due to DRAM gluts two years ago. That discouraged capacity investment and, as many insiders had predicted, it led to eventually higher price today.

Sure, you got bargain at their expense two years ago and now everyone is complaining about the higher cost of DRAM today. But that still doesn't justify IP theft.


DRAM makers make $10k per platter. A single fab pops 20k - 30k complete wafers a month, and each top tier maker has 4 to 6 of them. Thought, all makers are working at only 60 to 70 percent capacity now.

You can guess, they are plump with money, and MOFCOM officials naturally want to communize some part of this money pile.


Is your math really right?

> DRAM makers make $10k per platter. A single line pops out 40k a month, a single fab has 20+ lines, a fab complex has up to 8 fabs. Each DRAM maker has few fab complexes.

If I do this I get 10,000 * 40,000 * 20 * 8 which is $64 Billion.... per month.

Are you suggesting that the average DRAM maker should have revenue of $64 Billion a month or $768 Billion a year?

It sounds like you know the industry and I'm looking for some additional colour here.


my bad, my bad. Corrected my digits. We are looking at around 20 to 30k complete DRAM waffers per fab. For god knows what reason, digits for a line and a whole fab swapped places in my head.


Memory is always a feast and famine cycle, it's one of the reasons Intel pivoted away from it.




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