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As pointed out in another comment, the use of oil for plastics, streets, etc is less than 5% of overall oil consumption in the US. You could get that kind of output with a tiny domestic industry. With modern refineries, you can get a good control over the output mix and only produce what is needed.I think Houston would be hugely affected by a decline in the oil industry. Even if they can create jobs in the production of renewables, the job profile is often different from working at wells and the huge shipping sector would be largely non-existant.

So even if we increase plastic consumption by 2x (don't really see where that should come from), it's still a potential decline in oil consumption of 90%. Enough to basically destroy several industries (refining, drilling, well maintenance, pipelines, shipping).

Another interesting question is regarding gas stations. You'll still need some stations on interstates to re-charge for long distance trips. But you could basically get rid of all of them in cities. They would continue to exist as convenience stores, but probably with half the number of employees. This would be another huge sector that often employess untrained people, many of whom will likely not be qualified enough to work in battery factories.

Link to EIA report: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_use



Fair enough, a "potential decline in oil consumption of 90%". I get that. I accept that. It is a potential though; based upon existing technology. The oil and gas industry will be impacted (perhaps severely), but will it be a 90% impact? I doubt it. Few people have ever been able to predict the future. (Xerox failed, IBM failed, Yahoo failed, etc. - AT&T did a good job with "You Will" - Think it was a research firm that did it for AT&T.) Don't fall into the trap of thinking one knows how it will all play out. Odds are it will not play out like one thinks it will. The same technological advances that are removing industries are creating other industries. I just think the oil can be used for much more interesting things. 3D printing is really in its infancy right now. https://all3dp.com/biggest-3d-printers-world/ Imagine being able to print out whatever you want, including buildings and having them perfect. (not some nailed together wood done in a rush that has tons of joints where problems may arise) Raw material (oil) will be needed to do that. (unless of course there is other material to use, but it will have to be refined and oil & gas companies know all about that)

Now the employment of people is the other thing. Technology should make things cheaper and better. (cheaper either in initial price and/or the cost of maintenance) Fewer people will need to work and/or work fewer hours because things are cheaper and better. There was a time before there were two-income households. We could cut back to that without a huge disruption. An equilibrium will likely develop. If there is no income, there will be no consumers. Basic income may also be needed.

On a more funny note, those convenience stores had better well have some damn good restrooms like they have at Buc-ee's. Otherwise, why stop? The car is doing the driving. You're free to eat whatever you brought or simply sleep through the trip.




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