...especially when their favorite form of "raid" is busting doors at 5:30 AM, shooting dogs, and shoving guns in children's faces. If the preference were, rather, to wait until a suspect left for work, detain her when she got to the sidewalk, have her call the house and arrange for all remaining residents to take a walk, and then enter the residence in non-destructive fashion, all sorts of speculative policing might be better justified.
Not only that, notice that the tenuous thing is the link between the IP address and particular a person or endpoint location. You have the IP address, get a warrant to wiretap the IP address.
See if the illicit traffic to that IP address is really going to that residence. See if the traffic pattern looks like the traffic going in is coming right back out and being relayed somewhere else. Put a van full of government WiFi hardware on the street in front of the building and if the relevant traffic correlates to traffic to a wireless device, triangulate the exact location of that device and see whether it's actually inside the residence. See if anything at that IP address is in communication with C&C servers that imply it has been compromised.
Any of which can be done without shooting a single innocent dog.
