I struggle so hard with this anthropomorphism of LLMs. At the end of the day it's a statistical gradient descent predictor with a bunch of "shit" bolted on top to try and steer outputs in a specific way.
They don't have the actual concept of "benevolent"... or a concept of anything at all. Based on an input, they regress down a path of "what is the next most probable statistical token to output next" and that's fucking it, with the bolted-on shit manipulating these outputs a bit.
I don't doubt that at some point there will be some other AI leap, but I'm not even sure it'll be built on this foundation.
What really needs to be developed is an actual artificial brain of sorts. Much like an infant learns language from first principals, a real AI would have a phase of continuous growth, creating actual memories and being able to reflect upon them. I daresay context windows are not that.
I'd really like to encourage anyone to pump the brakes a bit on how these things actually work, and what they actually are. There is a reason sama is pivoting away from video, et. al. and into corporate software coding, much like anthropic.
I pay OpenAI but I would also be a happy Anthropic customer.
My view is that OpenAI, Anthropic and Google have a good moat. It's now an oligopolistic market with extreme barriers to entry due to needed scale. The moat will keep growing as the payoffs from scale keep growing. They have internal scale and scope economies as the breadth of synthetic data expands. The small differences between the labs now are the initial conditions that will magnify the differences later.
It wouldn't be surprising to also see consolidation of the industry in the next 2 years which makes it even more difficult to compete, as 2 or 3 winners gobble up everyone and solidify their leads.
When people worry about frontier lab's moat, they point to open weights models, which is really a commentary that these models have zero cost to replicate (like all software). But I think the era of open weights competition cannot be sustained, it's a temporary phenomenon tied to the middle-ground scale we're in where labs can still do that affordably. The absolute end of this will be the end-game of nation state backed competition.
Great improvement by only adding one feedback prompt:
Change the rotation axis of the wheels by 90 degrees in the horizontal plane. Same for the legs and arms
Following the trend of discovering smaller and smaller phenomena that our brains use for processing, it would not be surprising if we eventually find that our brains are very nearly "room temperature" quantum computers.
Seems more likely that residential modems will be required to use ISP-provided equipment that has government mandated chips, firmware, etc to filter outbound traffic for DDoS prevention.
