Removing a white collar job from the economy puts a worker into the bottom tier _and_ reduces the wages of that bottom tier.
We are speeding towards a servant class. Uber was the first wave. Now it’s more mundane things like getting groceries. I doubt it will be long before we rip off the band aid and make full time servants more popular.
You're right, and I think we're slightly at cross purposes. I'm not disagreeing that AI will drive some major societal changes as you outline.
My point is that the current narrative of "AI will take our jobs" is too simplistic, and that it might even be a smokescreen against the rising inequality that is already fueling anger across the world and which is totally unrelated to AI. If you're struggling to pay your bills today, that's not AI's fault - it's years of bad politics and politicians, geopolitics, hyper-capitalism, supply-chain issues, inflation, and so on.
In the future, if/when AI decimates parts of the middle class and they've had a chance to retrain, there will likely be a second-order impact on today's skilled manual workers. But that's years off, and not something I've seen discussed in detail in the mainstream.
I guess I just feel like your appeal to skilled manual workers is pointless. They’re not really the focal point. It’s the large masses of people being relegated to the bin labeled “effectively unskilled”.
Getting dumped from "upwardly mobile middle class" to "unemployable underclass" does seem likely to be radicalizing . It's not clear yet how much it'll actually be happening, but it does challenge a lot of the traditional focus on blue collar workers as being the most up in arms about automation and labor.
Violence against economic shifts from labor to capital have pretty much consistently failed though. At best they’ve won brief relief that eventually got swallowed by the invisible mouth.
You can’t really fight this stuff because of global competition.
Maybe so, but people talk like they’re very concerned and I see no evidence these concerns are genuine. Is nobody doing anything constructive or even trying to? Maybe I missed it and they are? People can peacefully campaign and advocate for things they think are important, I don’t see it happening.
Your opinion appears to be people shouldn’t share opinions unless they achieve a certain level of activity behind. So, like, idk dude. I don’t see you campaigning to restrict free speech so shut up?
It is possible to reduce harm by introducing white listed services. Kazakhstan did it in 2022, where only local bank apps worked during few days of blackout. I think Russia is doing it now with mobile network. If you can have a kill switch that activates intranet and cuts off internet in case of emergencies, then it can really help. The biggest threat are messaging apps and social media that can quickly spread information.
This isn't just a wealthy country like the US doing war rations. Iran's economy was already in crisis before the war, where businesses stopped selling products because their currency was fluctuating so much they couldn't set prices without losing money. It means tons of small businesses shutting down and people going hungry. Which puts even more pressure on Iran's social services which are were already in a terrible state. Now the US blockade means significantly less tax money coming into the government.
Their country is very much on the edge of chaos which is why they are brutally controlling their citizens.
> But the framing here is not “clever, innovative IRGC”
I am not seeking to frame anything here. Nor am I interested in getting involved in the broader areas on discussion on the subject.
The first few words of my original post made it clear "Looking at it from an alternative angle". An alternative way of wording that would be "devil's advocate".
I am just supplying a perfectly reasonable alternative perspective, I am not asking anyone to agree or disagree with it, I am just making a "food for thought" statement.
I see it, and hadn't fully considered it. Turning off the Internet has more utility than just suppressing the populaces ability to communicate, it also blackholes that compromised mail server used to track the movement of political leaders, any online drop-boxes/Telegram/Whatsapp channels used by cultivated informants/spies are now out of order.
From my point of view, they can't even "just turn on the Internet", even if they wanted.
We know from the Ukraine side that "keeping the internet on" requires a whole bunch of personal sacrifice, and a lot of "reasonably recent" electronic equipment and infrastructure that Iran can't simply buy or repair right now.
I'll bet you - dollars to donuts - that Iran has many countrywide IP-based networks running at this second, for things such as broadcast and telecoms.
Perhaps you are underestimating the resources available to a country of 90 million. You could play a game where you estimate the number of routers and switches outside of Tehran under a hypothetical where the the capital was leveled. I don't know how many universities Iran has, but my working assumption is that any one Computer Science department from a D-Tier university is equal to the task, if the physical carrier medium for the Internet is still present and they are bringing their ancient half-rack of equipment.
Ehhh I suppose but I think that’s a weak point. The purpose of shutting down the internet is undeniably to prevent the people from coordinating rebellion and the help control the narrative of the war.
This is all likely true. Although I feel people undersell how they work together.
Iranians broadly hate their government, yeah. But the thing that gets them rioting is economic failure. Which the strikes have exacerbated.
Social media is swarmed by people saying it’ll be like Iraq and Iranians will hate the US for its actions. I’m not convinced. My small anecdata of Iranian friends with contacts in Iran agrees with me.
I think we could see regime change within a decade.
> But the thing that gets them rioting is economic failure
I believe Iranians want to be able to decide their own fate, with the dignity that all humans deserve. Without criminal domestic religious zealots and without foreign meddling and bombing.
The previous protest was followed by the killing of Mahsa Amini, in morality police’s custody because of improper hijab. It’s not only economic hardships. But you’re right that war has made the situation worse, obviously.
> I believe Iranians want to be able to decide their own fate, with the dignity that all humans deserve.
They certainly do, the domestic religious zealots/terrorists on the other hand murdered over 30,000 protesters in 2 days to stop that from happening.
> Without criminal domestic religious zealots and without foreign meddling and bombing.
The domestic religious zealots have essentially ensured that foreign military intervention is required to some degree for Iranians to have the ability to decide their own fate. At this point it's likely most Iranians support some form of foreign intervention.
> I’m not convinced. My small anecdata of Iranian friends with contacts in Iran agrees with me.
I am having a very hard time believing anyone would be favourable to the country currently lobbing bombs at them from halfway around the globe. Regardless of how much they dislike their current regime.
Maybe this fuels some "everyone loves America, the good guys" fantasy, but, as someone who's come from a country where the people did not like the regime, I am very skeptical foreign interference will be seen positively or even neutrally.
Or maybe this is an attempt at making the war seem somehow just and led on humanitarian and democratic principles, as opposed to what it actually is.
Let's put it this way: Have you seen someone's brain on the sidewalk lately? No? Lost a loved one / a friend / a classmate? Perhaps when people see this (as I have) they find more favorable views of the aerial bombing campaign.
For reference, it has been verfied [~] that the regime killed ~220 students just in the recent uprisings of this January. That's a whole school full of students, all under-18. And then you have to ask, why would a teenager be on the streets, given that they knew, everyone knew, that snipers and machine guns will be there? Just 5 days ago they hung an 18-year-old who was arrested this Jan. They also hung a 19-yo wrestling champion very recently. The collateral damage of these bombings, which must be denounced and is reprehensible, still has not reached these levels either in brutality and in number. [1]
[~] (my internet connection is not good enough to find the sources, I'm using dnstt in a very unreliable network)
[1] AFAIK, Around 180-190 students have died in the recent conflict. Some 160-170 was due to an erroneous airstrike by the US military on the first day of the war, and their school was within 30 meters of a military base (!). Furthermore, some of the other students who have died were the children of the assassinated regime officials.
There's a very narrow and vanishing window of opportunity left to end-up with anything other than a total disaster, and even in that case I'm not holding my breath for the quality of life for the next 5 years. In the long-term, it's harder to predict than either side wants to admit.
If you need a hint, just take a look at what this regime did in Syria (600k dead and 12 years of internal war), in Gaza and Palestine (75k dead), in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and more. Most recently, this January in Iran with 40k dead. You see mullahs' footprints everywhere there is a humanitarian disaster, and I'm not optimistic about the future of Iran, in either case. These are not the kind of people that let go easily, they have a cataclysmic view of the world. They (literally) gave a "Passport to Heaven" to their fighters (Assad supporters) in Syria, and those very same fighters are chanting pro-regime songs (if you can even call it that) every night at every square and major street in the city.
As an Iranian, we saw these [death] figures as an abstract concept prior to these recent events. We (the ordinary citizens) heard about Yemen and the massacre in Syria, we "sympathized," and that was it. It wasn't until this January that it finally hit me, that 40k people dying is like 15 Tienanmen squares happening at once, or 5 times the D-Day battles casualties. And it's chilling to think about what the future will look like, knowing that this is only the beginning and we are choosing between "terrible" and "much worse."
Tel Aviv perhaps? Wartime is the worst time to stage a revolutionary for anyone,specifically because its a induces a state of emergency, and any activities can be construed as aiding the enemy.
My anecdata is from just two families whom I am hearing from indirectly and have never met in person. The takeaways are:
1) they HATE their government more than anything in the world. They’ve seen the government killing its own people.
2) the consensus of civilians is that strikes by and large are hitting IRGC targets. They do not feel civilian targets are being targeted even though the nature of it has resulted in civilian deaths.
3) they don’t feel inclined to give trump the slightest amount of trust or good will. They just want regime change by any means.
"You think the French monarchy was overthrown because they didn't try hard enough?"
Yes, actually I do. Are you aware how long the process of transformation was and how little actual violence did the royal troops mete out? Most of the blood during the French Revolution was shed among the revolutionaries themselves, later. Not by the old regime which barely resisted what was happening, being confused more than anything else.
The French monarchy was remarkably limp-wristed in its reaction to the post-1789 developments, probably because, in the beginning, not even the revolutionaries themselves expected to actually dismantle the monarchy. There was no civil war similar to Cromwell's England, nor massacres in the streets similar to modern Iran. In the largest event of that early period which could be called "a battle" (Storming of the Bastille), a grand total of 114 royalist soldiers made their last stand. Which is tiny for a country the size of France.
It took about a year for the situation to progress from the first session of the Estates General to the royal family attempted flight from Versailles, and 2,5 more years for the King to be executed. A classical case of the frog being boiled very slowly. The royal regime was indecisive and offered close to zero violent resistence.
(If you want to learn about an actual abortive French revolution which was suppressed with actual brutal violence by the royalists, look up Fronda of 1648-1653.)
In contrast, current rulers of Iran have 0 doubts about what is going to happen to them - and within minutes - if they get caught by the street crowd that hates them.
Russia had two revolutions in 1917. In the first one, pretty much everyone who mattered was unhappy with the regime. After some clashes between protesters and internal security forces, the emperor abdicated. A provisional government formed by established politicians took control, but it had to share power with workers' councils. The country became fragmented.
The provisional government was center-left, the army was mostly controlled by the right, and the workers' councils leaned towards revolutionary left. The right wanted to use the army to arrest Bolshevik leaders. The government declined, fearing a military coup. The right saw the government siding with the left and made an actual coup attempt. The government had to rely on the workers' councils to stop it. Which then emboldened the Bolsheviks to stage a revolution of their own a bit later.
But because the right was definitely not on board this time, the second revolution was only partially successful. Instead of a controlled regime change, the Bolsheviks got a civil war that lasted five years and killed millions.
> But the thing that gets them rioting is economic failure. Which the strikes have exacerbated.
Past riots were related to women rights or election fraud. The last one were related to the economic situation, but there is a large young population in Iran which aren't religious anymore, and living in an oppressive theocracy
My small anecdata of Iranian friends contradict yours. They are against both the US-Israeli bombings and the Islamic regime. How should be decide whose anecdata is the most trustworthy? Maybe we can use common sense instead and agree that people don't want to be bombed to death regardless of other circumstances?
But the vector under a theocratic government constantly points towards failure. So you have one known vector thats disaster and one unknown vector that just mightbbe disaster.. if in doubt throw the dice ?
Why wont a general strike work? Not enough support? People have never had freedom, so dont understand they have 100% ability to bring down govt if they wanted?
Due to years of corruption and mismanagement, leading to high inflation and high prices most people are below poverty line and living pay check to pay check and they won’t be able to literally feed themselves
This is the thing that is so curious about the concept of the general strike/siezing the means of production.
The workers already have seized the means of production. I mean truly. Owner does not have the keys. Some manager unlocks the building for the day. Workers show up to the farm. Everything gets done every day whether the owner is there or across the globe or some dubious llc entity. The only thing the owner functionally does, is to be an address on file to send their cut of the profits. Nothing more than a specially designated furnace to burn a subset of the monthly revenue, at least in terms of their actual interaction with their business and their businesses interaction with themselves.
Socialism is as easy as people waking up, going to work as usual, and not mailing that check to the owner. And having the owner go to the police, who in turn tell them "Awe shucks." These are the only conditions for socialism in 2026. Same as they were in 1926. So tantalizingly possible if people were just on board with it and not beholden to capitalism. Propaganda is why there are a subset of workers who will continue to diligently burn revenue for the owner, and why police will ultimately make the choice to sacrifice their own lives for the petty profits of this ownership class versus consider their own position in this world.
What does that look like in practice? Especially with so many transactions done digitally instead of with cash these days. Say, for retail: it used to be that the manager could simply not deposit the till overages, but now only a fraction of purchases are done with funds that don't travel over our heads via the bank cloud. I suppose you could, like, just give products away, and have the customer Cash App or Zelle you (or a store account) the purchase funds. Call it "escrow". Maybe send the cost of the product back to corporate and keep the margin.
I don't disagree, mind you. You probably could just keep the supply chains moving indefinitely while substituting actual trust for the pseudo-trust and obligation Capital's funds are supposed to engender. It would just be interesting to see the first steps.
It might end up like the great depression where people go on bank runs and there is some panic and violence. Or, maybe people also end up just working in kind in a way.
On the one hand I see that money is some forcing factor to prevent everyone from living to some degree of excess. But on the other hand, if there were no money, it isn't like resources come out of the ether to meet demands for excess. I expect it would end up like the lifestyle we see in rural villages, where no one really lives much in excess of eachother, the community is basically sized to the limits of what the resources they manage to bring in can support. There might be different roles in the community but it isn't like one person's day's labor is worth significantly more than another person's in a different occupation like it is in our western society, where we might value someones day of effort the same as the days effort of a thousand people, simply because of their title, not because they have the strength of a thousand people.
In terms of how this might look across the globe, probably everyone moving towards median standard of living whatever it happens to be in that region. No hoarders of wealth any longer. Might be very scary for someone like Bezos, but for most of us probably the exact same standard of living that we already know. Probably better without all the waste going towards filling these unproductive hoards of resources.
Usually socialist revolutions fail because nobody can agree on who the new leaders should be. Workers seize control of the means of production...and then what? Who determines what they should do with it? Who do they look to for guidance? If you elect/appoint/select someone, now they are the new capitalist. If you don't, the machinery sits idle while various factions fight amongst themselves.
We saw this with Occupy Wall Street and the CHAZ in the U.S - these protests didn't fail because they were crushed, they failed because local police basically let them win and then once they won different factions had different ideas of what to do next. We also see it at the state level with the Soviet Union (where a strong dictatorship did eventually emerge - the communist revolution didn't mean everybody was equal, it just meant some people were more equal than others) and in Vietnam (which became intensely capitalist less than 15 years after the communists won.
The function of the business owner, CEO, or other executive figure is simply to be a symbol of which direction the organization needs to go. They don't do any work themselves, and they are selected for their ability to look pretty and shout platitudes that other people follow. But that symbol is needed to actually get the people moving in one direction.
>Workers seize control of the means of production...and then what? Who determines what they should do with it? Who do they look to for guidance? If you elect/appoint/select someone, now they are the new capitalist. If you don't, the machinery sits idle while various factions fight amongst themselves.
And then what is you do what you would have done at work yesterday, today. Same job description as you had previously. Your manager? Same as they were yesterday too. Everything exactly the same. Just some guy you never see is not getting their passive income. No machinery would sit idle for the same reason no machinery sat idle yesterday: people showed up to run it.
This is sort of how it worked in Cuba. Factories were nationalized and people went from working for the man to working for the public. And then the man had no government that would listen to them either. They had to go to the US government, argue that this was some great taking if left unanswered would sure happen all over the US and the rest of the world, and a hasty invasion designed by the US for these business owners to feign any political responsibility was designed, executed, and pushed back on the beachhead by the Cubans. Today the nation of Cuba remains sanctioned because of these owners from decades ago and their descendants, who still represent a significant political influence in south florida congressional districts, still feel like they were robbed by the people they were exploiting.
No not really. It’s just if you ask the model what percent of people like apples, it doesn’t know the answer. We don’t even need to get to the level of change of opinions.
Models don’t “poll” their training data. If you give it five yes answers and five no answers, it doesn’t think that it’s 50/50.
If you give it actual data it can derive it, but that would be a poll
This whole synthetic sampling thing really boggles my mind. It’s like… it’s difficult to come up with an example that doesn’t feel like a hyperbolic strawman. It’s just that dumb.
We are speeding towards a servant class. Uber was the first wave. Now it’s more mundane things like getting groceries. I doubt it will be long before we rip off the band aid and make full time servants more popular.