I find it difficult to comprehend if the billionaires do not know this. That if the Government slowly turns into an oligarchy with their help, the Government will eventually turns against them too. They cannot escape the punishment.
Humans (our leaders) have behavior that shows up when under stress or things do not go per their plan. Other countries are already noticing this about USA leaders and will not hesitate to exploit.
My prediction for the future, with a heavy heart.
- Feb/2026: China becomes #1 in technological progress. And America's relationship with former allies is irreversibly bad.
- 2027-29: Russia continues to pamper President Trump for another term. Their goal is to create anarchy in America. They succeed.
The amount of incompetence, incomprehensible ideology and red-tape slows everything down. NSA and CIA still look powerful because of huge amount of funds that flow in. Other countries happily hack into our infrastructure. You hardly hear NSA doing such accomplishments anymore (last was the Iranian nuclear hack). I doubt if America has any powerful spy network in places in Russia or China. But hey, I am just a dumb citizen.
Maybe yes. If so, that is great. But then why do we not see any damage to those countries either due to misinformation or any other hacks. On a related note, Snowden incident shows the depth of our ability.
This is the point. Right tool for the job. Kubernetes was incubated at Google and designed for deployments at scale. Lot of teams are happily using it. But it is definitely not for startups or solo devs, unless you are an expert user already.
Thanks! Helium only automates browsers. If the 2FA is happening in the browser, then you can use Helium to automate the flow. If it's outside, then that part cannot be handled by Helium.
I wonder who came up with the $200/month idea, and what was running in their mind.
$200/month = $2400/year
We (consumers/enterprises) are already accustomed to a baseline price. Their model quality will be caught up or exceeded by open-source in ~6 months. So if I find it difficult to justify paying $20/month, why should I even think about $200/month.
Probably the thought process was that we can package all the great things (text, voice, video, images) and experience. The problem is that very few people use everything. Most of the time, the use cases are limited. Someone wants to use for coding, while someone else (artist) wants to use for Sora. OpenAI had an opportunity to introduce a la carte pricing, and then go to bundling. My hypothesis is that they will have very few takers at $200 for the bundle.
Enterprises - did they interview enterprises enough to see if they need user licenses for the bundles? Maybe they will give it at 80% or 90% discount to drive adoption.
Disclosure:
I am on Claude, Grok 2/X Pro, Cursor Personal, and Github Copilot enterprise. My ChatGPT monthly subscription expires in a week, and I will not renew for now and see the user vibes before deciding. I have limited brain power to multitask between so many models, and I will rather give a chance to Gemini Pro for 6 months.
1/ Best-in-class LLM in Bedrock. This could be done w/o the partnership as well.
2/ Evolving Tranium and Inferential as worthy competitors for large scale training and inference. They have thousands of large-scale customers, and as the adoption grows, the investment will pay for itself.
Hope this gets nixed. It might be a relevant case back in 2020, but no longer a valid case now. From the wikipedia case:
"The suit alleges that Google has violated the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890 by illegally monopolizing the search engine and search advertising markets, most notably on Android devices, as well as with Apple and mobile carriers."
Where will be the search monopoly by Google in 2025? If search monopoly slowly evaporates, where will be the advertising monopoly?
Google's entire argument against being regulated has been 'We're not monopolizing search, people choose to use us!'
The latter part also happens to conveniently be true when you buy all the available space that a competitor would need -- default placement in Chrome, Safari, Firefox, and Android.
You don't get to rig the game and then claim the results actually demonstrate everyone naturally loves you.
On the flip side, if default placement was eliminated and browsers asked users which search engine they'd like on first launch...I still believe most users would pick Google anyway and the main loser would be Firefox as search engine placement is the majority of their revenue.
Furthermore, ChatGPT reaching 100m users in 2 months also suggests that browser placement isn't the biggest factor into where users send their queries.
The success of the Chrome browser on desktop proves otherwise, no?
It's interesting that the argument is "nobody can compete with defaults" when one of the proposed remedies is to break off the part of the company that was too successful at competing with defaults.
Chrome organic growth was powered by a special confluence of historical events:
- IE was bloated and lazy from being dominant
- Google controlled one of the most visited websites in the world (pre-mobile appification)
- V8 performance boosted the web's then-cutting-edge js features
Those are huge tailwinds.
In contrast to now, where Chrome spends more time trying to deprecate mv2, link user browing to a Google identity, and find a way to recreate tracking cookies.
When's the last time Chrome shipped innovation that made users' lives measurably better? Per tab processes?
The completion is a click away. If you can't deliver enough value for people to change the defaults or go to your site are you really doing a better job?
Apple realized that 1/OpenAI is no longer the ONLY game in town, and 2/Models != Platform. Maybe, maybe Apple can achieve what they need (Apple Intelligence), while keeping the doors open for multiple models.
No one from the list (also add Anthropic to that list) is SOTA right now, but maybe Apple wants to keep its options open as the gap closes between OAI and the others.
Last time I checked, o1 did much better in PlanBench that models from other providers indicating better perf in that area [1][2]. Probably that lead will rapidly decay as other players implement similar approaches to "reasoning"/LRMs.
o1, which you seem to be referring to, is at best slightly better at specific tasks than Sonnet 3.5 while being completely unviable economically for production use, despite the amount of subsidizing OpenAI has been doing to make them lose a cool $5 billion this year. GPT has barely improved over the last 1.5 years [1].
Yeah, I know. I didn't say it was incredibly better in every bench, but there are reasoning and planning benchmarks it does much better (not just slightly) than Sonnet 3.5 and the rest right now, and that still that makes their offering SOTA vs the others, even if its not in terms of cost.
I put sources in another sibling comment, and as I said in both comments, I think that gap will close. I don't expect OAI to keep their moat much longer, especially with the people they've lost.
PS: I say all of this as a constant critic of OAI: both how they behave and their offerings. But credit where credit is due, I don't see out-of-the-box alternatives to OAI's rlhf'd CoT at any price point right now.
This is the likely scenario. Every conflict at exec level comes with a "messaging" aspect, with there being a comms team, and board to manage that part.
The key is "Enjoy". There is no substitute to meet people, smiling, happy, no politics, no desire to grow or get a raise. Plus fixed hours and you are not responding to slack/emails/oncalls after that. This is not stress, this is fun as long as you do not have to pay large bills.
Humans (our leaders) have behavior that shows up when under stress or things do not go per their plan. Other countries are already noticing this about USA leaders and will not hesitate to exploit.
My prediction for the future, with a heavy heart.
- Feb/2026: China becomes #1 in technological progress. And America's relationship with former allies is irreversibly bad.
- 2027-29: Russia continues to pamper President Trump for another term. Their goal is to create anarchy in America. They succeed.