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Assuming you divide it down to the earnings per car, that makes perfect sense. Of course right now they aren't making any profit at all, and by the time it is relevant it is likely that the cars will commit substantially no violations at all.

I don't find this observation of Djikstra's to be one of his best. If there is a gadget that does a thing that no other gadget does, what does it even mean for the interface to be "terrible?" How can you even know if the interface is terrible, given that a better one has yet to be invented? Maybe the interface is as good as it can be for the tool in question.

I also don't love your mapping of this observation onto modern LLMs. The interface of an LLM is natural language text, along with some files written in plain text or markdown. Can it be improved? Undoubtedly! But as a baseline, it doesn't seem half bad to me. If it is so terrible, it should not be hard to propose an interface that will be significantly more productive. Can you?


> If there is a gadget that does a thing that no other gadget does, what does it even mean for the interface to be "terrible?" How can you even know if the interface is terrible, given that a better one has yet to be invented? Maybe the interface is as good as it can be for the tool in question.

That's just a taste judgement, and you can decide the interface sucks on a one of a kind item quite easily, and people often do.


I guess it will be hard for really popular pundits to post anonymously, but I think for most people this is not a concern at this juncture. Pick and obscure blogger's text and try this. I would be surprised if it could figure it out.

Article relies on a study published in Jan 2024 and a single sentence quote from an Nvidia exec, which sounds like it might have just a little bit been taken out of context.

To be fair these kinds of apps also existed before LLMs. They just used OpenCV or similar instead of the LLM APIs.

Wouldn't the AGENTS.md containing the line, "When you make changes, they should be tested. Run tests with `uv run pytest`" basically have the same effect and save you some typing? I've never used AGENTS.md myself but I'd like to look into it because I find my agent rediscovering using a bunch of file reads very frequently in my current project.

It would, but then I'd have to copy that file into 100+ repos.

I don't want it in a single global config because I like to stay with the defaults to avoid confusing myself, especially when I'm writing about how coding agents work for other people.


That’s like 30 seconds of work to build a script to do this.

It's not just developers who are using this. My economist friends are. I bet most business analysts and general administration folks are or will be soon. Every normal person I know in my neighborhood is using AI for this thing or that. 50M people are currently subscribed to ChatGPT and it would be very surprising if this number goes down in the future.

I dunno I think about the language some people are using about AI investment and it is reminiscent of the many years where people were saying Amazon was a bad buy because they never turned a profit. Admittedly AI companies are investing more than the money they've already brought in, but I would be very hesitant to predict that it's all froth given the usefulness I've gleaned from the tools.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not unconcerned, but I think there are good reasons to suspect that at least some of the AI companies are making sound investments.


>It makes me wonder if I have been living under a rock, because I have never heard of frontier labs making money.

You're confusing the profit from the marginal token and overall profit (basically gross margin and operating margin). The comment you're replying to is calculating that AI labs are probably making a substantial profit per paid token. It's just that so far that profit has not been able to overcome the ongoing R&D and capex costs.


> not been able to overcome the ongoing R&D and capex costs.

And the cost of not-quite-paid tokens.


Which may or may not exist, hence this thread.

Non-paid tokens do definitely exist and they weren’t included in the remark about “substantial profit per paid token”. Underpaid/subsidized tokens also exist which don’t provide “substantial profit”.

Are you talking about free promo tokens the company gives out, or are you implying that subscription tokens are sufficiently subsidized so as to be below cost?

> Presumably there's a further rugpull to come.

How would that be? They are already charging as much as the underlying providers. They can hardly expect to have any customers if they are charging more.


Enterprise sales will be the answer. Microsoft will have some story that convinces an exec eight levels up the org chart from the normal users that this is an essential product they need to overpay for. Given their existing relationshipsand immense sales team they'll probably have success.

That story is data governance. Corporate already have a data-agreement with MS, storing all their data there. Github copilot is covered by that, while a individual agreement with e.g. anthropic needs lawers involved.

It’s precisely this, and, to be fair, it’s a rational approach given a Data Security Exhibit starts at 6 weeks and can hit 6 months to complete. That being said, I work with regulated data, so YMMV.

Microsoft is simply the default answer for most large corporations. Getting access to some Microsoft subscription is very easy, because of the existing framework agreements, Microsoft providing any and all compliance slopuments needed and already being pre-cleared for corporate data etc. Meanwhile trying to use another provider (e.g. Anthropic) would be a one year endeavor, minimum.

Exactly this. I can't count the number of enterprises with their whole stack inside of Microsoft's ecosystem.

Many of these enterprises are grid-locked with the IT department and AI usage.


Plus if you're in government you have procurement to deal with. You already have an Enterprise deal with Microsoft so you don't have to go through any of that rigmarole.

Can confirm, this is the situation.

But if the org already has an agreement with Anthropic (and many do) then why pay GitHub…

We also pay $300/month for Azure Desktop VMs.

We are paying for tens of thousands of those machines, although everyone knows they are stupidly expensive and incredibly slow.


They list the price 900% higher and give a 90% discount to enterprises who also use teams, outlook, office or even windows if they're desperate. Then that becomes a deal so good that enterprises can't afford not to take it!

Right now there is a cancel and refund button on the Github Copilot annual subscription setting, which I have just pressed.

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