"There are large vendors pulling it in separate directions (Canonical, Redhat, Google)."
It's pretty clear how that's going to shake out, isn't it? Google is pretty much a non-issue here; yes, Android and ChromeOS use a Linux kernel base, but they have no impact on any mainline distros, and there's no indication Google wants them to. So it reduces down to two parties fighting for control: Canonical and Red Hat. And Red Hat is going to win. Canonical doesn't have the resources to go its own way on more than a handful of fronts (this is why when Debian switched to systemd Upstart was killed off; Canonical is far too reliant on Debian as an upstream to fight every issue), and their requirement for a CLA to accept anyone else's code means they are entirely reliant on their own coders, as nobody wants to sign Canonical's CLAs. We'll see how long they can stick it out on Mir, but they don't have the resources to fight a war with Red Hat on two fronts, so that's the only issue I expect to see them fighting over.
It's pretty clear how that's going to shake out, isn't it? Google is pretty much a non-issue here; yes, Android and ChromeOS use a Linux kernel base, but they have no impact on any mainline distros, and there's no indication Google wants them to. So it reduces down to two parties fighting for control: Canonical and Red Hat. And Red Hat is going to win. Canonical doesn't have the resources to go its own way on more than a handful of fronts (this is why when Debian switched to systemd Upstart was killed off; Canonical is far too reliant on Debian as an upstream to fight every issue), and their requirement for a CLA to accept anyone else's code means they are entirely reliant on their own coders, as nobody wants to sign Canonical's CLAs. We'll see how long they can stick it out on Mir, but they don't have the resources to fight a war with Red Hat on two fronts, so that's the only issue I expect to see them fighting over.